A research team based at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory says that solar could have the lowest levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of all energy sources in South Korea by the early to mid-2030s.
Solar is set to become the most cost competitive energy source in South Korea by 2030 to 2035, according to researchers from the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.
Their research paper, “Assessing the Levelized Cost of Energy in South Korea,” evaluates the LCOE and highlights cost trajectories of various technologies in the Republic of Korea from 2030 to 2050.
Metrics integrated into LCOE analysis include overnight capital costs, fixed operations and maintenance costs, variable operations and maintenance costs, fuel costs, financing costs and capacity factors. While the LCOE of renewables is already highly cost-competitive in many countries, their LCOE in South Korea still exceeds that of fossil fuels or nuclear-based energy generation.
The findings indicate that renewable energy technologies, and in particular solar and offshore wind, are expected to experience continued cost declines. By the mid 2030s, renewable costs are projected to have declined by 28% to 41% relative to 2023 levels. The researchers says the main factor for this drop in costs will be a decrease in the upfront expenses required to build the infrastructure and its associated costs, including grid connection expenses.
In contrast, the LCOE for nuclear is projected to increase by 15% over the same time period. Coal is expected to decrease slightly, while natural gas is projected to decrease by 46%.
Large-scale solar, classified as over 20 MW in the research, is projected to be the most cost-competitive energy source by 2030, with projected LCOE between $47/MWh and $48/MWh.
When social costs of conventional power sources are included, such as accident risk costs for nuclear power plants and carbon costs for coal and natural gas, the researchers found solar of all sizes is projected to become the most cost-competitive option from the early 2030s.
By 2050, the cost of renewables is expected to have decreased by 38% to 56% relative to 2023 levels. Solar of all sizes is projected to be the most cost competitive energy source, with an LCOE between $28/MWh and $36/MWh in 2050, while natural gas is projected to be the least competitive.
In the research paper’s conclusion, the authors said that their findings indicate that South Korea can develop a cost-effective, lower-emissions power system by prioritizing renewables, including solar and offshore wind. They notred that the technologies should be installed in regions with higher capacity factors and/or in areas with lower connection costs.
The researchers add that adjustments to carbon pricing mechanisms and emissions reduction targets could be considered in the context of efforts to improve the cost-competitiveness of lower-emissions resources.
“These steps may contribute to enhancing energy security, managing long-term electricity costs, and supporting economic stability,” the researchers concluded. “Additionally, investments in grid flexibility, improvements to permitting processes, and domestic capacity development for green hydrogen production and advanced storage technologies could contribute to the development of a more resilient and adaptable energy system.”
South Korea added more than 3.1 GW of solar in 2024, pushing its cumulative solar capacity past 28 GW.